The Dismantling of the Houston Texans

Yes, I have not touched this blog since my ingenious prediction that the Giants would beat the Patriots. I have been busy with my last semester of my undergraduate. However, I still have found time to follow sports closely.


I have seen good key players of the my beloved Texans disappear before my eyes in the past few days. 


The Texans just traded the leader of their defense of the past six years to the Eagles, who somehow manage to have cap space. Yes, he has been injured, has a big cap number, and ultimately this is a business. But supposedly the Texans were a Matt Schaub injury away from the Super Bowl. This is all the time I have to write for now. It's interesting to say the least. 

Super Bowl XLVI

(LG3K) -- I refuse to write any type of analysis. Every website and commentator and armchair quarterback has their breakdown and opinion on why the Giants or Patriots will win. Since I have been busy with my last semester of college I will spare your ADHD and present this:

Caucasian Cornerback

No, I'm not picking vintage Randy Moss. The Giants will win. Luckily for me I have a 50% chance at getting this pick right.

The Motor City Prince

(macdaddyx4) -- Prince Fielder agreed to sign with the Detroit Tigers earlier this week, nabbing a nine-year, $214 million contract to play with his father Cecil’s old team.

Someday Jadyn Fielder will also play for the Tigers

When Victor Martinez went down with an ACL injury last week, the general consensus was that the Tigers would have to sign someone like Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Raul Ibanez, or Juan Pierre to replace him. Martinez is making $12 million this season while on the DL, so bringing in a cheap veteran seemed like the right idea at the time. But the Tigers weren’t happy with aging left fielders, so they signed one of the game’s top offensive first baseman instead.

Fielder joins a lineup that includes Miguel Cabrera, Delmon Young, Alex Avila, and Jhonny Peralta. With younger players like Austin Jackson, Brennan Boesch, and Ryan Raburn, the Tigers could be a top offensive team in the American League. Combine that with Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Doug Fister and this is a team that is primed to win the AL Central a second year in a row.

To accommodate Fielder, the Tigers will move Cabrera to third base. Both Fielder and Cabrera want to play the field, regardless of all the statistical and visual evidence that the only place they should stand is in the batter’s box. There will be a logjam in 2013, when Martinez is back to join the great hitters, horrible fielders club, but for now, only one of Fielder and Cabrera should have to take the field.

As smooth as a young Gary Sheffield

It would be in Detroit’s best interest to move Cabrera to DH, stick with Fielder at 1B, and keep Young in the OF. Yes, Young is an atrocious fielder, but Cabrera is even worse at the hot corner. Sure, Brandon Inge and Ramon Santiago may not be the typical sluggers teams desire at 3B, but they would be more productive than having an Andy Dirks or Raburn having to play every ball that gets by Cabrera. Give Cabrera some time at 3B to keep him happy, maybe around 18 games, the amount of time it took for the Tigers to move him to 1B in 2008. But hopefully he’ll be at DH for over 130 games, where he can only hurt other teams.

If Jim Leyland is in a comical mood, he could always move Cabrera to LF, a position he hasn’t played since 2005. Inge might have to play more of a rover position, but the fans would enjoy that, right?

This will be Leyland's face after one inning of Cabrera at 3B

Look for Fielder and Cabrera to be the most productive 3/4 combo in the majors. Both should be able to hit around .300 or above while hitting 35 or more home runs and knocking in 120 RBIs. Martinez provided some great protection for Cabrera last season and having Ryan Braun in front of him helped Fielder in 2011. But Fielder is a better hitter than Martinez and Cabrera is a better hitter than Braun, so I expect the two to thrive together.

Fielder has had some home/road splits over his career that worry some sabermetricians, and the move to Comerica Park admittedly isn’t the best situation. Comerica is twenty feet deeper in CF, fourteen feet deeper in right-center, and has a deceptive down-the-line distance in RF, but LF and left-center are only a foot deeper than his old home in Miller Park. Fielder loves to go the opposite way, so he should still be able to hit HRs with ease the other way in Comerica. Eleven of Fielder’s 38 HRs last season were no-doubters, or ones that would have been out at any park in MLB, so expect the power output to remain.

Praise is in order for Scott Boras for finding Fielder a job where there wasn’t one only two weeks ago. The Nationals, Mariners, Brewers, Marlins, Dodgers and a few other teams have all been linked to Fielder this offseason, but Detroit wasn’t an option until the moment they agreed to a contract. Let’s see if he can work the same magic for Damon and Craig Hansen.

Sorry, Craig, but the monkey has a better chance at a contract

Crunching a Big Ten Basketball Game

(LG3K) -- I love looking at games I have no personal bias or knowledge of other than researching numbers. I only talk about team stats and did not include any player stats.

Northwestern’s RPI is 38 with a SOS of 7. Northwestern is 11-2 at home.

At home, Northwestern averages:
72 points for and 63.3 points against

in 11 home wins, won by an average of 12.8 (beat MSU by 7, Penn St. by 12)

in 2 home losses, lost by an average of 14.5 (lost to Baylor by 28, Illinois by 1)

Purdue’s RPI is 65 with a SOS of 48. Purdue is 2-3 on the road.

On the road, Purdue averages:
64.8 points for and 71.2 points against

in 2 road wins, won by an average of 8 points. (Iowa, Minnesota)

in 3 road losses, lost by an average of 16 points. (Xavier, Penn St., Michigan St.)

Common opponents:

Penn State (NW won vs., Purdue lost @)

Illinois (NW won vs., Purdue won vs.)

Michigan (NW lost @, Purdue lost vs.)

Michigan St. (NW won vs., Purdue lost @)
Wisconsin (NW lost @, Purdue lost vs.)

Minnesota (NW lost @, Purdue won @)

Currently most lines have Northwestern at -1.5 with an O/U of 136. Take NW/Purdue averages of home/road points for and against and you get Northwestern at 71.6 and Purdue at 64.1 with a total of 135.7. On Thursday (Jan 26) ESPN had a Big Ten prop for Nebraska @ Iowa for 134 under/135 over. 87.3% picked under and then this happens. Nebraska shoots 52% and Iowa shoots 49%; were their defenses that bad?

I fell for it too.

Luckily for us this is a straight up pick.

The last time Northwestern had a home game was two weeks ago where they tied for their fourth highest point total all season of 81 and won by seven points. Oh, and it was against #7 Michigan State (currently #11). Northwestern’s two home losses were not that bad. Baylor was #8 at the time and undefeated. Illinois is currently 5^th in the Big Ten and would be #3 if the Leaders and Legends carried over. See the Big Ten joke there?

For Purdue, you can somewhat compare Northwestern to Illinois. NW RPI is 38 and Illinois RPI is 39. Purdue won at home against Illinois 75-60. Of course, Purdue’s numbers decline slightly in B10 road games (2-2, won by average of 8, lost by an average of 22.5). In terms of standings, I understand losing at MSU, but Penn State is last in B10 and beat Purdue by 20. Was Purdue still hung-over on January 5^th?

Does this scare a Wildcat? 

If you believe in college stamina, Purdue has had four days and NW has had six days to rest. If you believe in straight up basic number crunching, Northwestern should win. If you are a Purdue fan, you will probably hate me when I say I am going to pick Northwestern to win. See the trend here? As I finish this, 74.5% have Purdue, 25.5% picked Northwestern.


Oh you want me to have confidence? Small streaks 5/5, big streaks 3/5.


UPDATE: I was wrong. Purdue just won 58-56. Northwestern had a horrible offense, especially in the first half. Even their passing made me cringe. Sorry guys!

Nomar 10.0: The Search for Another Red Sox Shortstop

(macdaddyx4) -- I would just like to admit that the only football I watched today was the last five minutes of the first half of the Giants/49ers game. Horrible football fan, probably. So that's why I'm going to talk about baseball instead.

On Saturday, the Boston Red Sox traded shortstop Marco Scutaro to the Colorado Rockies for pitcher Clayton Mortensen. The Red Sox got a young pitcher with some potential and six million dollars in salary relief, while the Rockies finally get a second baseman they can trust. But the most important part of the trade is that the Red Sox will be looking for their eighth shortstop since they traded franchise icon Nomar Garciaparra in 2004.

I cried and you will, too

I won’t lie, I’m a huge Nomar fan and I was heartbroken when he was traded. But he turned down a four-year, $60 million extension before the 2004 season and he was never the same offensively or defensively after the trade, so in hindsight it may have been the right move. The problem is that the Red Sox have had eight different players play significant time at shortstop since the trade: Orlando Cabrera, Edgar Renteria, Alex Gonzalez, Alex Cora, Julio Lugo, Nick Green, Jed Lowrie, and of course Scutaro.

The Red Sox are apparently comfortable with Mike Aviles and Nick Punto splitting shortstop duties next season. Aviles performed well with the Red Sox, hitting .317 with a 107 OPS+ after being traded from Kansas City. Punto has a career year, hitting .278/.388/.421 with a 127 OPS+ in 63 games for St. Louis. Neither will approach Nomar’s prime numbers, but they could come close to Scutaro’s solid 2.9 WAR in 2011. If not, they will be hitting ninth in a potent lineup, so the Red Sox won’t need to rely too much on their bats.

Red Sox prospect Jose Iglesias could also be in the mix this season. While he may have one of the worst bats the baseball world has seen since Rey Ordonez (ten extra-base hits in nearly four hundred AAA at-bats last season), he has a fantastic glove and  plus range and could be an elite MLB shortstop if he could cut down on the mental mistakes that plague him in the field.

At least Ordonez could fly

Knowing the way the Red Sox treat youngish pitchers like Mortensen, who knows what could happen with him. Too old to be considered an elite prospect but still young enough to have a successful career, he will be thrown into the competition for the Red Sox’ fifth starter job with the likes of Aaron Cook, Vincente Padilla, and Carlos Silva. Mortensen was very effective in 58.1 innings with the Rockies last year, and if he continues improving, he should be able to beat out the veterans and give the Red Sox some more youth and save a few bucks to start the season. Or he could wither away in AAA while the veterans each get a chance. Only time will tell.

From a fantasy standpoint, Scutaro definitely benefits from this trade. He gets a chance to hit second in front of Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki, giving him a chance to see some great pitches and increasing his chances of scoring if he gets on. He will also be playing second base instead of shortstop. If Casey Blake gets injured like Casey Blake often does or he proves to be ineffective, Scutaro might even see himself playing some third base. Let’s not forget the Coors Field factor, which won’t suddenly make him a thirty home run guy but should boost his batting average and slugging percentage by a bit.

Blake gets a high five from James Loney for being healthy

Aviles and Punto probably won’t be worthwhile fantasy pickups, unless one of them takes the job and runs with it. There is worse than hitting ninth in the Red Sox lineup, but if you’re splitting time 50/50 with another player, you’re not worth even a bench spot in fantasy. Punto is a career .248 hitter with an OPS+ of 76, so I don’t see him repeating last year’s performance at the age of 34. Aviles is better in his career with a .288 average and an OPS+ of 98, so he definitely has offensive upside if he can take the job away from the slicker-fielding Punto.

Then again, all of this talk of Mortensen and the duo of Punto and Aviles playing important roles might be thrown out the window over the next few weeks. The main reason the Red Sox made the trade was to save six million dollars, which they could use towards an established pitcher like Roy Oswalt or possibly towards a shortstop upgrade through the trade market. Oswalt would instantly bring some credibility to a Red Sox rotation that was a joke last season, while a trade for a player like Hanley Ramirez would instantly take the team’s defense down a few notches and the clubhouse morale even more.

Throwing objectivity out of the window, I would like to thank Marco Scutaro for a solid two seasons with the Red Sox. He was by far the best shortstop we’ve had since Nomar, and he could keep that title for a few more seasons. I will remember how he was one of the few players that went out and played his heart out last September while the rest of the team was falling apart around him. Enjoy Colorado, Marco.

Even opposing players bow down before Scutaro