The Motor City Prince

(macdaddyx4) -- Prince Fielder agreed to sign with the Detroit Tigers earlier this week, nabbing a nine-year, $214 million contract to play with his father Cecil’s old team.

Someday Jadyn Fielder will also play for the Tigers

When Victor Martinez went down with an ACL injury last week, the general consensus was that the Tigers would have to sign someone like Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Raul Ibanez, or Juan Pierre to replace him. Martinez is making $12 million this season while on the DL, so bringing in a cheap veteran seemed like the right idea at the time. But the Tigers weren’t happy with aging left fielders, so they signed one of the game’s top offensive first baseman instead.

Fielder joins a lineup that includes Miguel Cabrera, Delmon Young, Alex Avila, and Jhonny Peralta. With younger players like Austin Jackson, Brennan Boesch, and Ryan Raburn, the Tigers could be a top offensive team in the American League. Combine that with Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Doug Fister and this is a team that is primed to win the AL Central a second year in a row.

To accommodate Fielder, the Tigers will move Cabrera to third base. Both Fielder and Cabrera want to play the field, regardless of all the statistical and visual evidence that the only place they should stand is in the batter’s box. There will be a logjam in 2013, when Martinez is back to join the great hitters, horrible fielders club, but for now, only one of Fielder and Cabrera should have to take the field.

As smooth as a young Gary Sheffield

It would be in Detroit’s best interest to move Cabrera to DH, stick with Fielder at 1B, and keep Young in the OF. Yes, Young is an atrocious fielder, but Cabrera is even worse at the hot corner. Sure, Brandon Inge and Ramon Santiago may not be the typical sluggers teams desire at 3B, but they would be more productive than having an Andy Dirks or Raburn having to play every ball that gets by Cabrera. Give Cabrera some time at 3B to keep him happy, maybe around 18 games, the amount of time it took for the Tigers to move him to 1B in 2008. But hopefully he’ll be at DH for over 130 games, where he can only hurt other teams.

If Jim Leyland is in a comical mood, he could always move Cabrera to LF, a position he hasn’t played since 2005. Inge might have to play more of a rover position, but the fans would enjoy that, right?

This will be Leyland's face after one inning of Cabrera at 3B

Look for Fielder and Cabrera to be the most productive 3/4 combo in the majors. Both should be able to hit around .300 or above while hitting 35 or more home runs and knocking in 120 RBIs. Martinez provided some great protection for Cabrera last season and having Ryan Braun in front of him helped Fielder in 2011. But Fielder is a better hitter than Martinez and Cabrera is a better hitter than Braun, so I expect the two to thrive together.

Fielder has had some home/road splits over his career that worry some sabermetricians, and the move to Comerica Park admittedly isn’t the best situation. Comerica is twenty feet deeper in CF, fourteen feet deeper in right-center, and has a deceptive down-the-line distance in RF, but LF and left-center are only a foot deeper than his old home in Miller Park. Fielder loves to go the opposite way, so he should still be able to hit HRs with ease the other way in Comerica. Eleven of Fielder’s 38 HRs last season were no-doubters, or ones that would have been out at any park in MLB, so expect the power output to remain.

Praise is in order for Scott Boras for finding Fielder a job where there wasn’t one only two weeks ago. The Nationals, Mariners, Brewers, Marlins, Dodgers and a few other teams have all been linked to Fielder this offseason, but Detroit wasn’t an option until the moment they agreed to a contract. Let’s see if he can work the same magic for Damon and Craig Hansen.

Sorry, Craig, but the monkey has a better chance at a contract

Crunching a Big Ten Basketball Game

(LG3K) -- I love looking at games I have no personal bias or knowledge of other than researching numbers. I only talk about team stats and did not include any player stats.

Northwestern’s RPI is 38 with a SOS of 7. Northwestern is 11-2 at home.

At home, Northwestern averages:
72 points for and 63.3 points against

in 11 home wins, won by an average of 12.8 (beat MSU by 7, Penn St. by 12)

in 2 home losses, lost by an average of 14.5 (lost to Baylor by 28, Illinois by 1)

Purdue’s RPI is 65 with a SOS of 48. Purdue is 2-3 on the road.

On the road, Purdue averages:
64.8 points for and 71.2 points against

in 2 road wins, won by an average of 8 points. (Iowa, Minnesota)

in 3 road losses, lost by an average of 16 points. (Xavier, Penn St., Michigan St.)

Common opponents:

Penn State (NW won vs., Purdue lost @)

Illinois (NW won vs., Purdue won vs.)

Michigan (NW lost @, Purdue lost vs.)

Michigan St. (NW won vs., Purdue lost @)
Wisconsin (NW lost @, Purdue lost vs.)

Minnesota (NW lost @, Purdue won @)

Currently most lines have Northwestern at -1.5 with an O/U of 136. Take NW/Purdue averages of home/road points for and against and you get Northwestern at 71.6 and Purdue at 64.1 with a total of 135.7. On Thursday (Jan 26) ESPN had a Big Ten prop for Nebraska @ Iowa for 134 under/135 over. 87.3% picked under and then this happens. Nebraska shoots 52% and Iowa shoots 49%; were their defenses that bad?

I fell for it too.

Luckily for us this is a straight up pick.

The last time Northwestern had a home game was two weeks ago where they tied for their fourth highest point total all season of 81 and won by seven points. Oh, and it was against #7 Michigan State (currently #11). Northwestern’s two home losses were not that bad. Baylor was #8 at the time and undefeated. Illinois is currently 5^th in the Big Ten and would be #3 if the Leaders and Legends carried over. See the Big Ten joke there?

For Purdue, you can somewhat compare Northwestern to Illinois. NW RPI is 38 and Illinois RPI is 39. Purdue won at home against Illinois 75-60. Of course, Purdue’s numbers decline slightly in B10 road games (2-2, won by average of 8, lost by an average of 22.5). In terms of standings, I understand losing at MSU, but Penn State is last in B10 and beat Purdue by 20. Was Purdue still hung-over on January 5^th?

Does this scare a Wildcat? 

If you believe in college stamina, Purdue has had four days and NW has had six days to rest. If you believe in straight up basic number crunching, Northwestern should win. If you are a Purdue fan, you will probably hate me when I say I am going to pick Northwestern to win. See the trend here? As I finish this, 74.5% have Purdue, 25.5% picked Northwestern.


Oh you want me to have confidence? Small streaks 5/5, big streaks 3/5.


UPDATE: I was wrong. Purdue just won 58-56. Northwestern had a horrible offense, especially in the first half. Even their passing made me cringe. Sorry guys!

Nomar 10.0: The Search for Another Red Sox Shortstop

(macdaddyx4) -- I would just like to admit that the only football I watched today was the last five minutes of the first half of the Giants/49ers game. Horrible football fan, probably. So that's why I'm going to talk about baseball instead.

On Saturday, the Boston Red Sox traded shortstop Marco Scutaro to the Colorado Rockies for pitcher Clayton Mortensen. The Red Sox got a young pitcher with some potential and six million dollars in salary relief, while the Rockies finally get a second baseman they can trust. But the most important part of the trade is that the Red Sox will be looking for their eighth shortstop since they traded franchise icon Nomar Garciaparra in 2004.

I cried and you will, too

I won’t lie, I’m a huge Nomar fan and I was heartbroken when he was traded. But he turned down a four-year, $60 million extension before the 2004 season and he was never the same offensively or defensively after the trade, so in hindsight it may have been the right move. The problem is that the Red Sox have had eight different players play significant time at shortstop since the trade: Orlando Cabrera, Edgar Renteria, Alex Gonzalez, Alex Cora, Julio Lugo, Nick Green, Jed Lowrie, and of course Scutaro.

The Red Sox are apparently comfortable with Mike Aviles and Nick Punto splitting shortstop duties next season. Aviles performed well with the Red Sox, hitting .317 with a 107 OPS+ after being traded from Kansas City. Punto has a career year, hitting .278/.388/.421 with a 127 OPS+ in 63 games for St. Louis. Neither will approach Nomar’s prime numbers, but they could come close to Scutaro’s solid 2.9 WAR in 2011. If not, they will be hitting ninth in a potent lineup, so the Red Sox won’t need to rely too much on their bats.

Red Sox prospect Jose Iglesias could also be in the mix this season. While he may have one of the worst bats the baseball world has seen since Rey Ordonez (ten extra-base hits in nearly four hundred AAA at-bats last season), he has a fantastic glove and  plus range and could be an elite MLB shortstop if he could cut down on the mental mistakes that plague him in the field.

At least Ordonez could fly

Knowing the way the Red Sox treat youngish pitchers like Mortensen, who knows what could happen with him. Too old to be considered an elite prospect but still young enough to have a successful career, he will be thrown into the competition for the Red Sox’ fifth starter job with the likes of Aaron Cook, Vincente Padilla, and Carlos Silva. Mortensen was very effective in 58.1 innings with the Rockies last year, and if he continues improving, he should be able to beat out the veterans and give the Red Sox some more youth and save a few bucks to start the season. Or he could wither away in AAA while the veterans each get a chance. Only time will tell.

From a fantasy standpoint, Scutaro definitely benefits from this trade. He gets a chance to hit second in front of Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki, giving him a chance to see some great pitches and increasing his chances of scoring if he gets on. He will also be playing second base instead of shortstop. If Casey Blake gets injured like Casey Blake often does or he proves to be ineffective, Scutaro might even see himself playing some third base. Let’s not forget the Coors Field factor, which won’t suddenly make him a thirty home run guy but should boost his batting average and slugging percentage by a bit.

Blake gets a high five from James Loney for being healthy

Aviles and Punto probably won’t be worthwhile fantasy pickups, unless one of them takes the job and runs with it. There is worse than hitting ninth in the Red Sox lineup, but if you’re splitting time 50/50 with another player, you’re not worth even a bench spot in fantasy. Punto is a career .248 hitter with an OPS+ of 76, so I don’t see him repeating last year’s performance at the age of 34. Aviles is better in his career with a .288 average and an OPS+ of 98, so he definitely has offensive upside if he can take the job away from the slicker-fielding Punto.

Then again, all of this talk of Mortensen and the duo of Punto and Aviles playing important roles might be thrown out the window over the next few weeks. The main reason the Red Sox made the trade was to save six million dollars, which they could use towards an established pitcher like Roy Oswalt or possibly towards a shortstop upgrade through the trade market. Oswalt would instantly bring some credibility to a Red Sox rotation that was a joke last season, while a trade for a player like Hanley Ramirez would instantly take the team’s defense down a few notches and the clubhouse morale even more.

Throwing objectivity out of the window, I would like to thank Marco Scutaro for a solid two seasons with the Red Sox. He was by far the best shortstop we’ve had since Nomar, and he could keep that title for a few more seasons. I will remember how he was one of the few players that went out and played his heart out last September while the rest of the team was falling apart around him. Enjoy Colorado, Marco.

Even opposing players bow down before Scutaro

Scapegoats: Billy Cundiff/Kyle Williams

(LG3K) -- Real quick:

Guess which guy picked the 49ers?

First, props to Joe Flacco who played well.

Remember, if Lee Evans makes the catch in the first place, Billy Cundiff doesn't even have to kick that field goal.

Kyle Williams is the easy scapegoat. Objective and intelligent people know the picture is a lot deeper than one player.

NFL Conference Championships

(LG3K) -- Everyone has an opinion on these games. So I’m not going to try to convince anyone why my opinion is valid and why I think this team is going to beat that team. But here’s how I feel about the Patriots game:

The Ravens have to leave their home now. The same Ravens team that was outplayed six days ago by the Houston Texans (not T.J. Yates) at home. The same Ravens team that lost on the road to the Titans, Jaguars, Seahawks, and Chargers. Why would I pick a team who struggles to win outside of their home? They are the New Orleans Saints of the AFC. And now I have the option to pick them against New England in Foxboro?


Who were the x-factors of the Ravens? Terrell Suggs? Duane Brown dominated him. Which by the way was THE best LT in the NFL in 2011, but that’s a different article in itself. Ed Reed? Unless Brady resorts to T.J. Yates decision-making, I fully expect the Patriots to win this game. Do Patriots even have to give the ball to the law firm if they have Welker, Hernandez, and Gronkowski running circles out there? I can't imagine the Ravens staying in the 3-4 for the majority of this game unless they feel confident their linebackers can hold their own against the Gronk/Hernandez combo. Is Bernard Pollard supposed to cover one of those TE’s? That's funny.

Some say the Patriots defense was a one-week wonder because they were playing Tebow. I’m not here to badmouth Joe Flacco, but all the sudden he looks scary? Patriots defense may suck, but they aren’t dumb. They are smart enough to follow along the lines of the Texans plan: slow down Ray Rice and let Flacco beat them. With all of that being said, I am picking the Ravens. 

Who will the CA congresswoman
from Baltimore cheer for? 

Giants/49ers game deserves so much analysis. So many little factors could be covered in this game. Keeping this post short and simple, I will look at two things. First, I was just joking. I am picking the Patriots to beat the Ravens. And I would put money on a straight bet for the Patriots to cover. If I had money. Two, the weather forecast calls for rain and high winds. Does that affect the Giants passing game? If it comes down to running, I will take Gore/Hunter’s match up over Bradshaw/Jacobs/Ware’s match up.

Three: I said I would only cover two things. Just seeing if you are paying attention. What would you bet on?

1.) 49ers secondary versus Nicks, Cruz, Manningham, and Ballard?

2.) Giants front 7 versus Gore and Hunter?

I’ll take option two.

This is the fourth factor I am focusing on. Who does better? NYG running versus Alex Smith throwing?

(Fifth, see how I lied) Who gets the job of allowing Vernon Davis to cry…again? Did Gregg Williams purposely put Roman Harper on Vernon Davis so he had an excuse to go work with his buddy in St. Louis? I said three things more than I said I would.

I’m not answering any of theses because I don’t know.  I can speculate what they will do and how they will do. But I don’t care. I just want to see the football game. You answer it. And there are only four possible Super Bowl combinations now. Boasting is pointless and it would be stupid unless you called it back in week four or so. With that being said, I think the Giants are going to win. I like my odds that I have a 50% chance at being right. No matter who wins, I’m cheering for the NFC over the Patriots.

Kate's hometown is closer to New York
than it is to San Francisco.

Update #1 (January 22, 1:13 E.T.): Weather forecast say's it will be raining in San Francisco today with mild winds. I doubt it will be detrimental to the game, but it should affect the pass/run ratio.


Update #2 (January 22, 5:19 E.T.): Rain chances have died down, but wind is still high. Again, not huge factor, but it makes it more difficult to throw longer throws, especially if wind is going against offense.

Fantasy Football 2011: A Retrospective

(macdaddyx4) -- Before I get to the meat of my post, I would just like to point out that I will be using Courier as the font for my posts. LG3K wanted a way to differentiate between us, and choosing the wildest font available from Blogspot was the easiest way to do it.

Anyways, with the fantasy football season over, I feel there is little reason to look back at it. Moving ahead to baseball is my preference, but I will dedicate this one post to reflecting on the past season.

I participated in three public ESPN leagues this year, two snake drafts and one auction. My number one goal was getting Aaron Rodgers, and not just because I’m a Packers fan; I knew he’d have a monster season. And guess who lead ESPN in standard scoring even though the second-place Drew Brees had 155 more passing attempts and 800 more passing yards? That’s right, Mr. Discount Double Check.

I needed an excuse to add Clay Matthews to this blog

As LG3K already mentioned, I missed out on Rodgers in a bidding war in our auction league, but I was able to snag him in my other two leagues. I took him with the reasonable fifth pick in one league, and was laughed at when I took him with the first overall pick in another league. Who’s laughing now, people who took Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Michael Vick, Jamaal Charles, and Andre Johnson in the first round of that league?

After Rodgers is where my teams fell apart. I aggressively targeted players like Mike Wallace and the Ravens D/ST, who helped me out a lot. But I also ended up drafting players like Knowshon Moreno and Beanie Wells in multiple leagues, the latter sitting on my bench due to injury concerns for his two biggest performances. Darren McFadden sat on my bench all season, waiting for a healthy week that never came. I also had at least one Panthers running back in each league, and none were named Cam Newton.

I did end up clinching the number one seed in the league I took Rodgers first overall, but made an early exit due to his poor performances against Oakland and Kansas City and the fact that the rest of my team couldn’t put up enough points. I finished in fourth place in the other Rodgers league and almost upset the number one seed, but stupidly left Steven Jackson and Nate Washington on the bench each of the two weeks. I don’t even want to mention my fifth place finish in the auction league where I scored a ton of points during losing efforts early on and was too far behind to make up the wins late in the season, but I guess I just did.

So, in conclusion, what I learned during the season:

• Aaron Rodgers is a beast.
• Roy Williams is still a horrible choice, even as a last pick.
• Do not drop Marquees Colston due to injury concerns, because I will pick him up and he will do great things for me.
• Never draft running backs from a Mike Shanahan-coached team unless their name is Terrell Davis.
• Eli Manning is the second coming of Peyton Manning.

Williams went on to drop this ball

This will probably be the last time I talk about fantasy football for a while, so savor it. Or hate it and look forward to my real and fantasy baseball rants.

Picking Against the Heart

(LG3K) -- Have you ever picked your team to lose? It is hard to pick against your favorite team, especially if they are good. Mostly intuition with some research led to me picking against my team. I was hoping I would have been proved wrong that day. BTW, this is such a poorly written rushed comment on ESPN.

I hate that I was right that day.

My Fantasy Football World

(LG3K) -- I only did two fantasy football teams this year. This is probably considered blasphemy in the fantasy sports world, but it is fun to think about what could have been. Since I did not have insider information on Peyton Manning’s neck, I eventually crashed and burned in a money league. However, I finally did well in a public league.

My first league was a public league on ESPN. I have always felt that in comparison to a snake draft, the auction draft was the one in which you could theoretically build your dream team. Kind of like the Philadelphia Eagles, except you can actually win. If you ever wanted to live out your dream to be the next Billy Beane/Paul DePodesta, the auction draft is the way to go.

This was our (macdaddyx4) only league together in 2011. The rest of the players in the league were unknown to us. Most of the people stayed active throughout the year, but the bottom two or three became inactive. Looking back at the draft, I lucked out multiple times. My first pick I won was Aaron Rodgers for $60. Here’s the funny part: I didn’t even want him. I was actually going to target Tom Brady and had predetermined I would have spent up to $40 on him, much higher than he was being valued for at the time. Anyways, my colleague macdaddyx4 is a BIG Packers fan. I was just one-upping him to get him to overpay and test his man-love. By the time the bid got to $50 for Rodgers it was down to the two of us. I knew he would pay a lot for him. When it got to $60 he decided to stop so I got stuck with him. I think he was mad at me.

Like Adam Dunn, if I don't hit a home run,
I strikeout. A lot. 

The rest of my draft:

Mike Williams- I was one of the sheeple who thought his arrow was pointing up and his ceiling was high. Turns out it was probably the floor that was high.

Calvin Johnson- He was my top targeted WR, so I was prepared to overspend.

Hakeem Nicks- I thought he was going to be good but not for this price. I was just trying to get the guy to pay closer to what I paid for Megatron and ended up getting stuck with him too.

Jeremy Maclin- I was happy for $10. I figured if Vick could stay healthy and produce even 75% of what he did last year, Maclin should thrive.

Tony Romo- This was the first time I ever horded. I only took him to protect myself and for trade bait should someone’s QB go down. I thought he could do well with 2 dynamic WR’s.

Eagles D- The media brainwashed me into thinking they were going to be amazing for $4.

Austin Collie- I was giddy over this since I thought he would be a steal at $2 if he could just avoid concussions. Never happened thanks to Peyton’s neck.

Rob Gronkowski- This is what the 124^th pick is supposed to look like: $1 to fill out depth. Talk about riding a guy to the championship! I only picked him because it seemed like every TE was gone by this point. It’s got to be scarce when Zach Miller is taken already.

Darren Sproles- I don’t know why I used my last dollar on him back then. But he became ESPN’s #8 RB and my #1 RB. Who said you didn't need a little luck to win the championship.

Long live Peyton’s neck.

My other one was a money league with my friends at college on NFL.com. It was a 2QB league with PPR. By doing thorough research on how the commissioner set up his points, I determined the top 5 QBs last year were the highest scoring position by an average of 52 points over the top 5 RBs and an average of 71 points over the top 5 WRs. I had the 10^th pick in a 10-man snake. I decided to go with two QBs on the first two picks for the overall consistency. When it got to my turn, Vick, Rodgers, Brady, and Rivers had all been selected. That guy who selected Rivers must have done some quick research, because NOBODY selects Rivers in the first round. Drew Brees had a down year and was getting older, but he was also in a contract year. Easy pick.. Next, let’s just say I drafted Peyton Manning before anybody knew how serious his neck was. I always draft right before the first week of the season. This was my first time doing a league with them and our schedules dictated an early August draft, well before Manning was placed on IR.

Number crunching.

In hindsight it’s always easy to laugh at who people passed up, especially in a snake draft.


If I could go back in time and change one pick, I would trade Peyton Manning for Matthew Stafford. Looking back I had an OK draft after Peyton. Miles Austin, Matt Forte, Mike Wallace, Blount (POS), Ryan Mathews, Mike Williams (POS), and Mike Tolbert.  I didn’t know Matthew Stafford was going to be healthy and throw 40 TDs to Megatron. I’m not going to say Cam Newton because nobody in their right mind would have drafted him with the 11^th overall pick on standard scoring settings. Hindsight! 

Looks like a good week 16 lineup...for the constellation bracket. Starters in bold.

The team name? “Thanks a lot Peyton Manning.” For my draft, and an easier season for my Houston Texans.

Looking Back at Fantasy Football

(LG3K) -- Fantasy football is as about consistent as Streak for the Cash. If it was so easy than we should win every year right? Not easy for the Jamaal Charles owners ($48 in my auction, 2^nd rounder in my snake), Vick owners (like a musician who has one SINGLE their entire career), and CJ2K owners (perhaps unmotivated after the big contract, perhaps overrated one-hit wonder).

From my eight years or so of doing fantasy sports, the draft never makes or breaks you (besides Peyton’s neck, covered later). Sleepers and depth-fillers that turn into stars help tremendously on the path to the championship. What usually wins is staying active with your team and free agents. I am not going to talk much about busts since they are more common and more subjective than sleeper hits, especially with injuries. These are statements using ESPN standard scoring.

Free Agent/Draft Steals (known as bragging rights)
I don’t rank them because it depends on the context. For example, Cam Newton is great, but if you had Drew Brees and Matthew Stafford and decided to pick up Newton, chances are you didn’t maximize your profit in a trade. However, if you were counting on Joe Flacco to lead you to a championship, consider Cam Newton a godsend. Note: I don’t cover EVERY single hit and miss.

Cam Newton- I did several mock drafts and not one person picked him. Both of my drafts were void of his selection. He had as big of an impact as a free agent as Vick had last year. Did anyone see him doing this well? Take out the passing stats (4,000 yards, 21 passing TDs) and he would have been around ESPN’s #18 RB with 700 rushing yards and 14 rushing TDs. Ended up as the #4 overall player.

Matthew Stafford- Unwritten fantasy rule: Thou shall not consider injury history as a big factor (Matt Schaub 2009 NFL Passing leader). OK, actually you probably should (see: Vick, Mike), but those who believed that if he could ever stay healthy he would be good to great would be rewarded. 5,000 yards and 41 touchdowns would have been #1 status a few years ago. Unfortunately for Matthew’s recognition, a few other QBs went HAM this year.

Tim Tebow- No matter how much you love or hate him, he produced great fantasy numbers when he took over the QB position in the second half of Denver's game in week 6.

Mark Sanchez- Woah, the Sanchize finished as the #9 QB? Consider me surprised.

His teammates called him out. Jealous or reasonable?

Calvin Johnson- Not really a surprise, but #11 overall player? First eight games were crazy, cooled off for 5 straight games, only to reward the faithful owners with 79 points from weeks 15-17. Amazing numbers for a WR.

Wes Welker/Steve Smith- I put both of these names together because I feel like most of the fantasy world forgot/downgraded them this year: Welker because he had a down year. Smith because he was aging with a rookie QB. Smith was probably the bigger surprise, but both finished well above their average draft position.

Jordy Nelson- After week 1, Jordy was a hot debate between macdaddyx4 and me. I claimed that he was becoming Aaron Rodgers best WR threat based on Nelson’s Superbowl and Week 1 performance. I don’t know if Greg Jennings was being doubled, but Aaron Rodger’s looks given to Nelson in two enormous games made me a believer. He produced for me in my money league, which I picked him up as a free agent.

Victor Cruz - I wouldn’t consider him consistent, but he was definitely a surprise as he ended up as the #4 WR. He had good games with 7-9 points from receiving yards and then he would have monster games (eight double digit games, five of them being 20+ points)

Laurent Robinson- Had 11 TDs, more than Miles Austin (7) and Dez Bryant (9). Granted, I don’t think Austin ever came close to 100% after the hamstring injury.

Julio Jones/A.J. Green- Excellent years considering rookie WRs generally do not have these types of numbers.

Reggie Bush- Back from the dead? Starting in week 8, Reggie produced double-digit points in eight of the nine games he played in. Last season Kris Humphries was averaging 10 points per game. This season? 14 ppg. See where I am going with this? I was going to mention Kim, but...never mind.

Men have better fantasy lives without Kim.

Matt Forte/Fred Jackson- Make no mistake: Both were on pace for big seasons before getting injured in weeks 11 (Jackson) and 13 (Forte). Both were surprising considering their average position ranking was in the teens to twenties.

Marshawn Lynch- Famous for the beast-mode run on the Can’t-Win-Away-From-Home-Saints, he came alive in the second half of the season. So much alive, he finished as the #6 RB.

Darren Sproles- Speaking of running on the Saints, their backfield looked crammed. They just spent a first round pick on Alabama’s Mark Ingram who was consistently ranking as the highest RB out of NO in the fantasy world. However, it was Sproles who finished on top and ended the year as ESPN’s #8 RB. Even without points per reception, Sproles delivered mostly as a receiving back. Like Newton, take out his main stat: running, and Sproles receiving stats were good for 120 points, better than Mr. DeSean Jackson.

Steven Jackson- I see Jackson’s situation in similar fashion to Jones-Drew. Teams could easily stack the box without having to worry much about their team passing and yet both still produced.

Like Steven Jackson, Thomas still has some kick. 

Arian Foster- Hear me out. He did not play in three games. His first game back he was limited to 10 rushes. Andre Johnson missed a 9 whole games, and 3 games he played for about 2 quarters. Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones do not help Foster. He had to split carries with probably the best backup in the NFL, Ben Tate. For the last six games he had Matt Leinart and T.J. Yates as his QB. Would your team’s defense be scared of that QB combo?  All of this and he still finished the #4 RB and the #14 overall player on ESPN. In the 12 full games Foster played in, nine of those games produced 17+ points.

Jimmy Graham/Rob Gronkowski- Both physical specimens, both showed promise last year, and both delivered this year. Graham probably had a bigger fantasy ceiling because he was just getting hot near the end of 2010 and didn’t have the apparent competition that Gronk had. It seemed like Gronkowski was in every Patriot scoring highlight on TV this year.

Aaron Hernandez- Brady loved him too as he finished #3 in TEs. Before the draft I don’t think it was clear who or if Brady had a favorite target. Last year Hernandez and Gronkowski seemed to alternate having a good game.

David Akers- Kickers are always inconsistent and 99% of the time it never pays to take one until the last round, but congratulations to David. He was booed out of Philadelphia after a poor playoff game against Green Bay. I doubt any fantasy experts had him ranked in the 10 ten, especially on an anemic San Francisco offense (don’t lie, you thought they sucked). Akers did well for kicking in San Francisco’s wind. All he did was come up with six double digit points from weeks 9-17.


Honorable Mentions

Surprises/produced better than draft position: Eli Manning, Drew Brees (somewhat), Ryan Fitzpatrick, Andy Dalton, Matt Hasselbeck, Green-Ellis (He managed double digit TDs??), Ryan Mathews, Michael Bush, Antonio Brown, Tony Gonzalez; 49ers, Seahawks, Texans, and Lions defense, all who finished in the top 10 defenses on ESPN.

Disappointments: Phillip Rivers, Peyton Manning (for anybody who had a draft before he was declared dead), any TB player, Peyton Hillis, Philadelphia in general, Jermichael Finely (besides one big game, had single digit games in 12 games), Mendenhall/CJ2k

My First Love

(LG3K) -- Sometimes I love the Texans more than my girlfriend. Only half-joking, but it is a fascinating point that a sports team could be so heavily invested in a person's life that they will yell, fight, cheer, argue, complain, celebrate, and cry. You know we have progressed as Americans when a man will cry over a football game before he cries over the loss of a human life. I love the Texans, but I also understand the role of sports as entertainment. I condemn the people who were rumored to send Jacoby Jones death threats for his unexplainable gaffe on a punt return, ultimately leading to the opposing team having the ball on the 2 yard line. Mind you, this was in the playoffs. But the Texans are not bigger than a human's life, even if it is the most hated man in Houston at the moment. As far as the legal gambling ESPN gets away with, the Texans are the only team that seems to be an automatic green for me when it comes to Streak for the Cash.

Does Toro still love Jacoby Jones?

Back when I was getting into playing SFC again in early December, Houston was hosting their second biggest home game of the year. Houston’s biggest home game this year was when the Pittsburgh Steelers visited back in the beginning of October. I believe the Texans entered into the “contender” status after winning 17-10 in a convincing performance. I don’t think the game was as close as the final score. Penalties against Houston nullified a sack-fumble, a blocked field goal touchdown return and a pick-six, leaving the possibility of 21 points off the board; however, that’s football…the only thing that matters in the end is the W/L.

Enter the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta was the second real playoff contender to play in Houston this year. SFC had 75% picking the Falcons and rightfully so. Houston was down to their third-string, fifth round QB T.J. Yates. Oh, and it was his first start in the NFL. If I weren’t a Texans fan, I would have gone off of stats and other Internet information. Research would have said the Texans had a great running game countered by the Falcons top tier run defense. When a prop shows a rookie making his first start against a playoff bound team, albeit at home, it is screaming to pick against him. Surely the Texans will rely heavily on the run and count on their dominant defense to keep them in the game, but could Yates make the throws when they were needed? Intuition probably said that Atlanta would stack the box and force Houston to throw. Houston was without their starting QB and their best defensive player in Mario Williams. Why not pick Atlanta? By trading away a big chunk of two drafts to move up and get Julio Jones, Atlanta was going all-in. Some experts even picked the Falcons to go deep into the playoffs. Considering everything on paper, I would have picked the Falcons. However, me being a huge Texans fan, I thought T.J. Yates looked pretty good the week before when he came in after Matt Leinart broke his collarbone. Since I was really just starting to get back into SFC, it was an easy pick for me. I wasn’t going to pick against MY team (I finally swallow my pride and pick against Houston in the divisional round; future post). I believed in Yates (and any professional player, until they provide reason not to believe anymore) and I believed he could lead my team to the playoffs. 

Which is why I was actually appalled by SFC’s community with ONLY 75% picking Atlanta. Take out the Texan’s fans, and what did the remainder of the 25% see? #1 defense at the time, yes. Playing at home? Check. The return of Andre Johnson? You bet Houston was excited. But did they believe in T.J. Yates as much as me? Or did they not like Matt Ryan, on the road for additional reason. Perhaps they saw Houston’s 8-4 record at home against a 7-4 road team.

The Streakers were on to something with Matt Ryan.

For those who don’t play, several people who participate in ESPN’s Streak for the Cash (SFCers, streakers, sheeple) like to just look at records, no matter the sport, and make a decision. The sheep tend to go with the better record, especially if the better record is at home. Streakers with big win streaks will tend to be very careful in picking games. Unless their confidence was really high, this would have been a game they would have stayed away from because the game was too risky. Two good teams playing each other goes against the golden rule of people who look for as close of a guaranteed lock as possible. If you look at the leaderboard here, none of the top streaks tend to pick the NFL playoffs. Whatever they felt about Houston's chances, they were rewarded.

Houston ran 42 times and passed 30 times. Their defense held Atlanta to 10 points. T.J. Yates did OK. He threw a pick six that was called back. He got hit on a throw that looked like a forward pass but was ruled a fumble. For his first start, he can say he won against a strong team. The game was close. Julio Jones could have tied the game on the last play if he didn’t drop the barely contested pass by Houston’s darling Kareem Jackson. Just like the Pittsburgh game, a win is a win. For the people who followed the 75%, which I would have been surely guilty of had I not been a fan of the Texans and gone solely on research…they were wrong on this day. Streak for the Cash claimed another victim.