Looking Back at Fantasy Football

(LG3K) -- Fantasy football is as about consistent as Streak for the Cash. If it was so easy than we should win every year right? Not easy for the Jamaal Charles owners ($48 in my auction, 2^nd rounder in my snake), Vick owners (like a musician who has one SINGLE their entire career), and CJ2K owners (perhaps unmotivated after the big contract, perhaps overrated one-hit wonder).

From my eight years or so of doing fantasy sports, the draft never makes or breaks you (besides Peyton’s neck, covered later). Sleepers and depth-fillers that turn into stars help tremendously on the path to the championship. What usually wins is staying active with your team and free agents. I am not going to talk much about busts since they are more common and more subjective than sleeper hits, especially with injuries. These are statements using ESPN standard scoring.

Free Agent/Draft Steals (known as bragging rights)
I don’t rank them because it depends on the context. For example, Cam Newton is great, but if you had Drew Brees and Matthew Stafford and decided to pick up Newton, chances are you didn’t maximize your profit in a trade. However, if you were counting on Joe Flacco to lead you to a championship, consider Cam Newton a godsend. Note: I don’t cover EVERY single hit and miss.

Cam Newton- I did several mock drafts and not one person picked him. Both of my drafts were void of his selection. He had as big of an impact as a free agent as Vick had last year. Did anyone see him doing this well? Take out the passing stats (4,000 yards, 21 passing TDs) and he would have been around ESPN’s #18 RB with 700 rushing yards and 14 rushing TDs. Ended up as the #4 overall player.

Matthew Stafford- Unwritten fantasy rule: Thou shall not consider injury history as a big factor (Matt Schaub 2009 NFL Passing leader). OK, actually you probably should (see: Vick, Mike), but those who believed that if he could ever stay healthy he would be good to great would be rewarded. 5,000 yards and 41 touchdowns would have been #1 status a few years ago. Unfortunately for Matthew’s recognition, a few other QBs went HAM this year.

Tim Tebow- No matter how much you love or hate him, he produced great fantasy numbers when he took over the QB position in the second half of Denver's game in week 6.

Mark Sanchez- Woah, the Sanchize finished as the #9 QB? Consider me surprised.

His teammates called him out. Jealous or reasonable?

Calvin Johnson- Not really a surprise, but #11 overall player? First eight games were crazy, cooled off for 5 straight games, only to reward the faithful owners with 79 points from weeks 15-17. Amazing numbers for a WR.

Wes Welker/Steve Smith- I put both of these names together because I feel like most of the fantasy world forgot/downgraded them this year: Welker because he had a down year. Smith because he was aging with a rookie QB. Smith was probably the bigger surprise, but both finished well above their average draft position.

Jordy Nelson- After week 1, Jordy was a hot debate between macdaddyx4 and me. I claimed that he was becoming Aaron Rodgers best WR threat based on Nelson’s Superbowl and Week 1 performance. I don’t know if Greg Jennings was being doubled, but Aaron Rodger’s looks given to Nelson in two enormous games made me a believer. He produced for me in my money league, which I picked him up as a free agent.

Victor Cruz - I wouldn’t consider him consistent, but he was definitely a surprise as he ended up as the #4 WR. He had good games with 7-9 points from receiving yards and then he would have monster games (eight double digit games, five of them being 20+ points)

Laurent Robinson- Had 11 TDs, more than Miles Austin (7) and Dez Bryant (9). Granted, I don’t think Austin ever came close to 100% after the hamstring injury.

Julio Jones/A.J. Green- Excellent years considering rookie WRs generally do not have these types of numbers.

Reggie Bush- Back from the dead? Starting in week 8, Reggie produced double-digit points in eight of the nine games he played in. Last season Kris Humphries was averaging 10 points per game. This season? 14 ppg. See where I am going with this? I was going to mention Kim, but...never mind.

Men have better fantasy lives without Kim.

Matt Forte/Fred Jackson- Make no mistake: Both were on pace for big seasons before getting injured in weeks 11 (Jackson) and 13 (Forte). Both were surprising considering their average position ranking was in the teens to twenties.

Marshawn Lynch- Famous for the beast-mode run on the Can’t-Win-Away-From-Home-Saints, he came alive in the second half of the season. So much alive, he finished as the #6 RB.

Darren Sproles- Speaking of running on the Saints, their backfield looked crammed. They just spent a first round pick on Alabama’s Mark Ingram who was consistently ranking as the highest RB out of NO in the fantasy world. However, it was Sproles who finished on top and ended the year as ESPN’s #8 RB. Even without points per reception, Sproles delivered mostly as a receiving back. Like Newton, take out his main stat: running, and Sproles receiving stats were good for 120 points, better than Mr. DeSean Jackson.

Steven Jackson- I see Jackson’s situation in similar fashion to Jones-Drew. Teams could easily stack the box without having to worry much about their team passing and yet both still produced.

Like Steven Jackson, Thomas still has some kick. 

Arian Foster- Hear me out. He did not play in three games. His first game back he was limited to 10 rushes. Andre Johnson missed a 9 whole games, and 3 games he played for about 2 quarters. Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones do not help Foster. He had to split carries with probably the best backup in the NFL, Ben Tate. For the last six games he had Matt Leinart and T.J. Yates as his QB. Would your team’s defense be scared of that QB combo?  All of this and he still finished the #4 RB and the #14 overall player on ESPN. In the 12 full games Foster played in, nine of those games produced 17+ points.

Jimmy Graham/Rob Gronkowski- Both physical specimens, both showed promise last year, and both delivered this year. Graham probably had a bigger fantasy ceiling because he was just getting hot near the end of 2010 and didn’t have the apparent competition that Gronk had. It seemed like Gronkowski was in every Patriot scoring highlight on TV this year.

Aaron Hernandez- Brady loved him too as he finished #3 in TEs. Before the draft I don’t think it was clear who or if Brady had a favorite target. Last year Hernandez and Gronkowski seemed to alternate having a good game.

David Akers- Kickers are always inconsistent and 99% of the time it never pays to take one until the last round, but congratulations to David. He was booed out of Philadelphia after a poor playoff game against Green Bay. I doubt any fantasy experts had him ranked in the 10 ten, especially on an anemic San Francisco offense (don’t lie, you thought they sucked). Akers did well for kicking in San Francisco’s wind. All he did was come up with six double digit points from weeks 9-17.


Honorable Mentions

Surprises/produced better than draft position: Eli Manning, Drew Brees (somewhat), Ryan Fitzpatrick, Andy Dalton, Matt Hasselbeck, Green-Ellis (He managed double digit TDs??), Ryan Mathews, Michael Bush, Antonio Brown, Tony Gonzalez; 49ers, Seahawks, Texans, and Lions defense, all who finished in the top 10 defenses on ESPN.

Disappointments: Phillip Rivers, Peyton Manning (for anybody who had a draft before he was declared dead), any TB player, Peyton Hillis, Philadelphia in general, Jermichael Finely (besides one big game, had single digit games in 12 games), Mendenhall/CJ2k