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| Does Toro still love Jacoby Jones? |
Back when I was getting into playing SFC again in early
December, Houston was hosting their second biggest home game of the year. Houston’s
biggest home game this year was when the Pittsburgh Steelers visited back in
the beginning of October. I believe the Texans entered into the “contender”
status after winning 17-10 in a convincing performance. I don’t think the
game was as close as the final score. Penalties against Houston nullified a
sack-fumble, a blocked field goal touchdown return and a pick-six, leaving the
possibility of 21 points off the board; however, that’s football…the only thing
that matters in the end is the W/L.
Enter the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta was the second real
playoff contender to play in Houston this year. SFC had 75% picking the Falcons
and rightfully so. Houston was down to their third-string, fifth round QB T.J.
Yates. Oh, and it was his first start in the NFL. If I weren’t a Texans fan, I
would have gone off of stats and other Internet information. Research would
have said the Texans had a great running game countered by the Falcons top tier
run defense. When a prop shows a rookie making his first start against a
playoff bound team, albeit at home, it is screaming to pick against him. Surely
the Texans will rely heavily on the run and count on their dominant defense to
keep them in the game, but could Yates make the throws when they were needed?
Intuition probably said that Atlanta would stack the box and force Houston to
throw. Houston was without their starting QB and their best defensive player in
Mario Williams. Why not pick Atlanta? By trading away a big chunk of two drafts
to move up and get Julio Jones, Atlanta was going all-in. Some experts even
picked the Falcons to go deep into the playoffs. Considering everything on
paper, I would have picked the Falcons. However, me being a huge Texans fan, I
thought T.J. Yates looked pretty good the week before when he came in after
Matt Leinart broke his collarbone. Since I was really just starting to get back
into SFC, it was an easy pick for me. I wasn’t going to pick against MY team (I
finally swallow my pride and pick against Houston in the divisional round;
future post). I believed in Yates (and any professional player, until they
provide reason not to believe anymore) and I believed he could lead my team to
the playoffs.
Which is why I was actually appalled by SFC’s community with ONLY 75% picking Atlanta. Take out the Texan’s fans, and what did the remainder of the 25% see? #1 defense at the time, yes. Playing at home? Check. The return of Andre Johnson? You bet Houston was excited. But did they believe in T.J. Yates as much as me? Or did they not like Matt Ryan, on the road for additional reason. Perhaps they saw Houston’s 8-4 record at home against a 7-4 road team.
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| The Streakers were on to something with Matt Ryan. |
For
those who don’t play, several people who participate in ESPN’s Streak for the
Cash (SFCers, streakers, sheeple) like to just look at records, no matter the
sport, and make a decision. The sheep tend to go with the better record,
especially if the better record is at home. Streakers with big win streaks will
tend to be very careful in picking games. Unless their confidence was really
high, this would have been a game they would have stayed away from because the
game was too risky. Two good teams playing each other goes against the golden
rule of people who look for as close of a guaranteed lock as possible. If you
look at the leaderboard here,
none of the top streaks tend to pick the NFL playoffs. Whatever they felt about Houston's chances, they were rewarded.
Houston ran 42 times and passed 30 times. Their defense held
Atlanta to 10 points. T.J. Yates did OK. He threw a pick six that was called
back. He got hit on a throw that looked like a forward pass but was ruled a
fumble. For his first start, he can say he won against a strong team. The game
was close. Julio Jones could have tied the game on the last play if he didn’t
drop the barely contested pass by Houston’s darling Kareem Jackson. Just like
the Pittsburgh game, a win is a win. For the people who followed the 75%, which
I would have been surely guilty of had I not been a fan of the Texans and gone
solely on research…they were wrong on this day. Streak for the Cash claimed
another victim.




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